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一、经济增长下滑的背后
2014年GDP增长和工业增长分别为24年和20年来得最低点，引发诸多担忧。其实最近两年经济增长出现罕见平稳，高于下行趋势线；“平线”走势（对应08-09V型底）。从趋势看，2015年惯性下滑的可能性更大。PPI持续下滑与农民工工资持续较快增长挤压利润空间。行业分化非常明显（资源密集型行业利润率非常低）。部分地区罕见下滑（东北、山西、河北）。铁路、外贸货运下滑（资源型产业、出口产业下滑）。人们习惯了过去的高增长，今天的正常增长就“慢”了。
二、未来经济增长的趋势
截止第一季度末，第三产业首次超过GDP的一半；基础建设保持持续增长；民间资本占社会总投资的三分之二，生产性服务业投资高速增长；房地产供需矛盾，价格会下滑；网购带动的不仅是消费，使快递等业务连续4年保持50%以上的增长。
三、如何理解新常态下的中国经济
认识新常态，适应新常态，引领新常态，是当前和今后一个时期我国经济发展的大逻辑。新闻联播讨论“新常态”的背景图：30多年的快速增长，其背后是资源、环境、和谐等各方面付出的代价。企业的本质困难是产能过剩而非需求不足。协同推进新型工业化、城镇化、信息化、农业现代化和绿色化，牢固树立“青山绿水就是金山银山”的理念。市场解决效率问题，政府解决公平问题。促进经济发展的同时，促进社会公平正义、增进人民福祉是经济体制改革的出发点和落脚点。2015年是全面深化改革的关键之年，是全面推进依法治国的开局之年，也是全面完成“十二五”规划的收官之年。把转方式调结构放到更重要位置，狠抓改革攻坚，突出创新驱动，强化风险防控，加强民生保障，促进经济平稳健康发展和社会和谐稳定。
农业部畜牧业司副司长 王俊勋
2014年畜牧生产回顾：
生猪：存栏4.66亿头，下降1.8%；出栏7.35亿头，增长2.75%；肉产量5671万吨，增长3.2%。
禽蛋：2894万吨，增长0.6%。牛肉：689万吨，增长2.4%。羊肉：428万吨，增长4.9%。禽肉：1751万吨，下降2.7%。牛奶：3725万吨，增长5.5%。
生猪生产形势：2014年全年，只有8-10月略有盈利，全年平均出栏一头肥猪亏损100元。猪粮比价已连续65周低于6:1的盈亏平衡点。
饲料总产量：1.97亿吨，比2013年增长2%。其中，配合饲料1.69亿吨，同比增长3.8%；浓缩饲料2151万吨，同比下降10%；添加剂预混合饲料641万吨，同比增长1.1%。猪饲料产量8616万吨，同比增长2.4%；蛋禽饲料产量2902万吨，同比下降4.4%；肉禽饲料产量5033万吨，同比增长1.7%；水产饲料产量1903万吨，同比增长2.1%；反刍动物饲料产量876万吨，同比增长10.2%；其他饲料产量397万吨，同比增长37.8%。饲料新法规实施，饲料企业数量明显减少。2014年底，配合、浓缩和精料补充饲料获证企业5531个，比2013年底减少4582个；添加剂预混合饲料和单一饲料获证企业数量分别减少339个和411个。2014年，全国9省区饲料产量过千万吨，占全国饲料63%，包括广东、山东、河南、辽宁、河北、湖南、四川、广西和江苏，江苏是今年的新成员。2014年，百万吨以上的饲料企业（集团）31个，比2013年增加6个；产量10352万吨，占全国的52%，比2013年增长4%。
受养殖调整影响，今年一季度饲料总产量以及配合、浓缩、预混合饲料产量均同比下降4%、3.2%、9.2%和4.3%。
农业新形势：成就大，压力大，成本“地板”与价格“天花板”双重挤压；新思路、新视野、新办法，有“生产导向”向“消费导向”转变；加快农牧结合；治理农业污染。
畜牧业新特征：产量总体进入低速增长阶段；区域布局从东部向中西部、粮食主产区转移；环境约束刚性化；消费波动对生产影响加大；集团化、一体化、全产业链加快发展。
饲料行业：在创新中寻找机遇。创新商业模式和互联网技术将带来新机遇；规模化的优势将体现的更加充分；产业链发展成为大型企业集团的必然选择；生物技术的作用越来越大。
美国谷物协会北京办事处主任 楼瑞恩
美国玉米2014年高产，比2013年增加980万吨，预计2015年产量大幅度下降，比2014年下降近3000万吨。8年持续增长6600万吨，乙醇需求增加，饲料需求增长缓慢，出口大幅度增加。巴西、阿根廷、乌克兰2014-2015年度产量和出口量略有下降，消费量增加，库存下降。
美国DDGS增产取决于E15乙醇的推广使用和乙醇出口的增长。
高粱有许多优势：非转基因，节水，霉菌毒素低，单宁含量低，改善猪肉品质，降低粪污中的营养物质排放。美国高粱由于中国进口而处于历史高位，并会刺激高粱播种面积增长，预计高粱的出口还会不断增长。
中国玉米网总裁 冯利臣
2014/2015粮食年度售粮情况回顾：
启动早：2014年一号文件明确指出，继续执行玉米临储政策，产区贸易商信心十足，收购启动早，亦多有提前预定粮源情况出现。
收的快：临储政策明确，贸易商信心充足，纷纷看好后市，各企业处以临储为目标，争相采购粮源。
政策好：11月25日临储政策发文，开启新粮食年度临储收购序幕，后期追加“霉变放宽”政策，继续利好玉米市场。
入库多：临储敞开收购，贸易商提前储备临储粮源，使得临储入库量持续维持高位。
库存高：对比去年市场情况，今年贸易商多有“小库存”现象，总库存量不容忽视。
一直强：新粮上市以来，企业处开秤价格同比偏高，贸易商采购热情高涨，售粮价格基本维持高位。
中储粮政策提高了粮食储备，有利于稳定粮价，提高农民种植积极性，同时也能够从国际市场获取更多低价的高粱、大麦和DDGS等原料。由于中国普遍缺水，马铃薯的种植面积会逐步增长。
截止4月20日，东北玉米临储量已经达到8217万吨，占总产量的88%。包括：产量因素、政策因素、市场因素和消费因素。临储收购创天量将会导致高价粮外运困难，丧失价格优势，价格或许仍有上涨空间，并最终倒逼东北临储拍卖现身。
今年玉米价格的最高点已经在3月份出现，8、9月份不会出现高位，饲料企业采购的低点还有机会。
全国畜牧总站站长、中国饲料工业协会常务副会长兼秘书长李希荣
我国饲料行业将由高速增长转变为中高速增长。
1、畜产品消费形式发生新变化，消费总量平稳增长，挤出政府消费泡沫，消费回归正常。
2、畜产品供求发生新变化，总量平衡，出现结构性短缺和阶段性剩余。
3、畜牧业产能过剩，企业面临突出问题，需要企业自身解决。
4、国内外畜产品发生新变化，价格倒挂，将受到进口畜产品冲击，如进口猪肉6.5元/斤。
5、区域布局发生新变化，由南方禁养、限养往北方转移。
6、畜牧业生产方式发生新变化，散户退出加速，规模化发展放缓。
7、畜牧业制约因素发生新变化，养殖土地政策和环境保护法。
8、畜产品营销方式发生新变化，除传统销售外，直销、网络、电子交易平台会不断增长。
9、畜产品消费结构发生新变化，禽肉会增加，猪肉会下降。
10、畜牧业生产收益发生新变化，受成本“地板”和价格“天花板”双重挤压，成本增加，价格受限，利润率降低。
11、粮食供求发生新变化，调整种植结构（青贮玉米、苜蓿草），实现种植和养殖共同发展。
12、草原畜牧业发生新变化，大力发展人工草料，人工圈养，满足消费需求。
13、畜牧业政策环境发生新变化，如取消母猪补贴。
各饲料企业需要仔细研究问题，才能寻找到适合自己发展的出路。
The English version
A, economic growth fell behind
In 2014 GDP growth and industrial growth for 24 years and 20 years come low respectively, causing many worries. Actually the last two years rare smooth economic growth, higher than the downward trend line; "Flat line" direction (08-09 v). From the trend, more likely to decline in 2015 inertia. Producer prices falling and migrant wages continued rapid growth squeezing profit margins. Industry differentiation is obvious (resource-intensive industry profit margin is very low). In parts of the rare drop (northeast, shanxi, hebei). Railway, foreign trade freight decline (resources industry, the decline in export industries). People accustomed to high growth in the past, today's normal growth was "slow".
Second, the trend of future economic growth
2015 government work report on the current international situation judgment: the world economy is under the depth adjustment, recovery of steam, geopolitical influence is aggravating, uncertain factors increase. Conclusion: the situation is the same as the 2015 and 2014, cannot be placed too high expectations, and, of course, also need not worry too much. By the end of the first quarter, the third industry more than half of GDP for the first time; Infrastructure to maintain sustained growth; Private capital accounts for two-thirds of the total investment, the investment growth of producer services; The contradiction between supply and demand of real estate prices will decline; Online shopping is not only driven by consumption, keep the express delivery business for four years more than 50% growth.
Third, how to understand China's economy under the new normal
To know the new normal, to adapt to the new normal, leading the new normal, China's economic development is the current and future a period of great logic. News broadcast talk about background of the "new normal", more than 30 years of rapid growth, its resources, environment, harmony is behind the price etc. The essence of the enterprise is difficult capacity rather than excess demand. Collaborative promote the new industrialization, urbanization, informationization, agricultural modernization and greening, firmly establish a "green hills and water is jinshan yinshan" concept. The efficiency of market to solve the problem, the government solve the problem of fairness. Promoting economic development at the same time, promote social fairness and justice, to improve people's welfare is the starting point and the foothold of economic system reform. 2015 years is the key to comprehensively deepen reform, is the starting year of the rule of law, and complete the final year of the 12th five-year plan. Turn the way of structural adjustment in more important positions, vigorously promotes the reform, and highlight the innovation drive and strengthen risk control and prevention, strengthen the security of the people's livelihood, promote healthy steady economic development and social harmony and stability.
The ministry of agriculture animal husbandry department deputy director Wang Junxun
Livestock production in 2014 to review:
Pig: the amount of 466 million fell by 1.8%; Such 735 million, up 2.75%; Meat production 56.71 million tons, an increase of 3.2%.
Egg: 28.94 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. Beef: 6.89 million tons, an increase of 2.4%. Lamb: 4.28 million tons, an increase of 4.9%. Poultry: 17.51 million tons, down 2.7%. Milk: 37.25 million tons, an increase of 5.5%.
Pig production situation: all of 2014, a slight profit, only 8-10 month average such a pig head loss of 100 yuan. Pig grain price below 6:1 65 consecutive weeks of break-even point.
Feed output: 197 million tons, up 2% from 2013. Among them, compound feed 169 million tons, up 3.8%; 21.51 million tons of concentrated feed, fell 10% year on year; Additive premix feed 6.41 million tons, up 1.1% from a year earlier. Pig feed production 86.16 million tons, up 2.4%; Egg feed production 29.02 million tons, fell 4.4% year on year; Meat and poultry feed production 50.33 million tons, up 1.7%; Aquatic feed production 19.03 million tons, up 2.1%; Ruminant feed production 8.76 million tons, up 10.2%; Other feed production 3.97 million tons, up 37.8% from a year earlier. Feed the new regulations, feed the number decreased significantly. At the end of 2014, cooperate, enrichment and supplement concentrate feed certification, enterprises 5531, less than at the end of 2013, 4582. Additive premix feeds and the single feed the certification number to reduce 339 and 411 respectively. In 2014, the nine provinces of feed production ten million tons, 63% of the feed, including guangdong, shandong, henan, liaoning, hebei, hunan, sichuan, guangxi and jiangsu, jiangsu is the new members this year. In 2014, more than 2014 tons of feed enterprises (group) 31, six more than in 2013; Production of 103.52 million tons, 52% of the country's, up 4% from 2013.
Influenced by breeding adjustment, in the first quarter of this year and cooperate, enrichment, premixed feed feed production output fell by 4%, 3.2%, 9.2% and 4.3%.
Agricultural new situation: achievement big, pressure is big, cost "floor" and "ceiling" price squeezed; New thinking, new vision, new way to have a "production guide" to "consumer oriented"; To speed up the agriculture and animal husbandry; The governance of agricultural pollution.
New features: animal husbandry production overall into the slow growth stage; Regional distribution from east to the Midwest, the major grain producing areas; Environmental constraints, rigid; Consumption fluctuations affect production increase; Collectivization, integration, the whole industry chain to accelerate development.
Feed industry: looking for opportunities in the innovation. Innovative business model and the Internet technology will bring new opportunities; The advantage of scale will embody more adequately; Industrial development will become the inevitable choice of large enterprise groups; The role of biological technology is more and more big.
The American association of cereal, director of the Beijing office Floor Ryan
U.S. corn high yield, 2014, 9.8 million tons more than in 2013, is expected to 2015 annual production of dropped substantially, lower than in 2014 nearly 30 million tons. 8 years of continued growth, 66 million tons of ethanol demand increase, the feed demand growth is slow, exports increased dramatically. Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, 2014-2015 annual output and exports fell slightly, increased consumption, falling inventories.
Promote the use of the DDGS production depends on E15 ethanol and ethanol export growth.
Sorghum has many advantages: non-gmo, water saving, lower mycotoxin, low tannin content, improving pork quality, reduce the nutrients in the waste emissions. The historically high due to imports of Chinese sorghum, and stimulates the sorghum planting area of growth, sorghum exports is expected to be growing.
China's corn net President Feng Lichen
2014/2015 food annual did situation review:
Start early: in 2014, it is pointed out in one file, continue to implement the corn in the store policy, production areas, traders confidence acquisition started early, many also booked stocks.
Closed fast: in the store policy clear, traders confidence enough, are bullish, each enterprise be in store for the target, rushed to purchase stocks.
Good policy: on November 25, near the store policy articles, the new food store to buy in the annual gatherings, additional late "mildew relax" policy, continue to good corn market.
Storage: store in the open bid, traders in the reserve in advance store stocks, making store receipts have remained high.
High inventory: the market situation compared to last year, this year many traders "small inventory" phenomenon, a stronger stock cannot be ignored.
Since going public, has strong: the new food business: begin business price on the high side, compared to the same trader purchasing enthusiasm, did basic maintain high prices.
In grain storage policy to improve the grain reserves, is beneficial to stabilize prices, increase the farmers grow enthusiasm, also can get more low price on the international market of raw materials such as sorghum, barley and DDGS. Because of China's general lack water, potato planting area will gradually increase.
As of April 20, in the northeast corn reserves reached 82.17 million tons, accounting for 88% of the total output. Include: production factors, policy factors, market factors, and consumption. In the store to buy a day of sinotrans will lead to high food difficulties, loss of price advantage, price increases, maybe there is still a space, and eventually reversed transmission store auction appeared in the northeast.
Its highest level this year, corn prices have already appeared in March, 8, 9 months will not be high, feed enterprises purchasing low still have a chance.
The national animal husbandry station stationmaster, China feed industry association executive vice President and secretary general Li Xirong
Feed industry in China will be transformed into rapid growth in the high speed growth.
1, consumption form new changes in animal production and steady growth of total consumption, government consumption bubble, consumer return to normal.
2, new changes in animal products supply and demand, the aggregate balance, structural shortage and surplus by phases.
3, animal husbandry, excess production capacity, the enterprise faces prominent question, need to solve by themselves.
4 the new changes in animal products both at home and abroad, selling price, will be subject to import animal by-products, such as pork imports 6.5 yuan/kg.
5, regional layout, new changes have taken place by the southern ban, be restricted to a shift toward the north.
6, new changes in the way of animal husbandry production, retail exit speed, scale development to slow.
Seven new changes, animal husbandry, restricting factors, farming land policy and environmental protection.
Eight new changes in the way, the animal products marketing, in addition to the traditional marketing, direct marketing, network, electronic trading platforms will continue to grow.
9, animal products, the new changes in the consumption structure, can increase poultry, pork will decline.
10, livestock production gains new changes, the cost of dual extrusion "floor" and "ceiling" price, cost, price limits, lower profit margins.
11, the new changes in food demand and supply, adjust the planting structure (silage corn, alfalfa), realize common development of planting and breeding.
12 new changes, grassland animal husbandry, developing artificial forage, captivity, to meet consumer demand.
13 new changes, livestock policy environment, such as cancel the sow subsidies.
Each feed enterprises requires careful research problem, to find the way out for their development.
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